Reasonable Anticipations for Each CFB Initiative with a New HC in 2024
Realistic Expectations for Every CFB Program with a New HC in 2024
Tier 5: Year Zero Tier
In college football, the coaching carousel is never empty; but, the 2024 offseason put it into overdrive.
After becoming an Alabama powerhouse, Nick Saban retired, and his exit sparked a flurry of adjustments. In the wake, San Jose State, Arizona, and Washington all needed to hire new coaches.
In addition, a few well-known figures are returning as head coaches, including Derek Mason, Manny Diaz, and Bill O’Brien.
There are thirty Football Bowl Subdivision teams with new head coaches in all. Based on our projections for 2024, we have ranked them into a few categories, the first of which is “oh, please don’t lose every game” against real national contenders.
David Braun, who led Northwestern as an interim manager in 2023 and was awarded the permanent position, is not included in the list.
4: It’s Not Terrible Here
Every program in this division has modest expectations for the 2024 campaign. It is conceivable to qualify for bowl games, but if the team loses one or two games, nobody will get very worked up.
James Madison’s seamless move to the FBS was facilitated by Curt Cignetti, who is currently at Indiana. If not for the Hoosiers’ comparatively mild schedule, we may be in Year Zero again.
Willie Fritz, another power-conference leaper, led Tulane through a significant transformation. Before moving to Houston, he took the program to six bowls in his final five seasons. He also won 23 games in the previous two seasons, including a Cotton Bowl victory over USC.
Additionally, longtime offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby was hired by Mississippi State to serve as head coach for the first time.
Derek Mason, a former coach at Vanderbilt, completes the list by rejoining Middle Tennessee.
Tier 3: Bowl Game, Hopefully
Anything less than getting to a bowl might not be seen sympathetically by these coaches. It would be a joy to truly be in the running for a conference championship, though.
This group is also very large.
For Syracuse’s Fran Brown, Duke’s Manny Diaz, and Boston College’s Bill O’Brien, bowl eligibility is a reasonable objective in the redesigned ACC. In the redesigned Big Ten, the same holds true for UCLA’s DeShaun Foster and Michigan State’s Jonathan Smith.
Although Oregon State’s program’s future is still up in the air, Trent Bray, a former defensive coordinator, can help the team find stability in 2024.
San Jose State, one of three Mountain West universities with a new coach and postseason aspirations, will be the opponent for Bray and OSU. Former Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo was hired by SJSU, Sean Lewis was recruited by San Diego State, and Jay Sawvel was promoted by Wyoming.
South Alabama and Georgia State, both seven-win teams in 2023, had to find a head coach after the departing coach took a position as a Power 4 coordinator. They introduced Major Applewhite and Dell McGee, respectively.
After leading New Mexico State to its second 10-win season in program history, Jerry Kill announced his resignation. Tony Sanchez, who had a 20–40 record at UNLV from 2015–19, is now at NMSU.
Tier 2: Will They Contend?
These teams have a chance, in the best case, to contend for a conference title in terms of talent. But any change to a new coach is erratic.
Jedd Fisch drove a quick rise at Arizona, and in Year 1 at Washington, he’ll have seasoned quarterback Will Rogers.
Texas A&M is unlikely to matter in a loaded SEC, but Mike Elko improved Duke significantly in his two seasons there. Conner Weigman, the quarterback, is back, which is yet another major plus for A&M.
In Gerad Parker’s first season as coach, back-to-back champion Troy is going through a significant rebuild. Bob Chesney at James Madison has a similar scenario, as the team is finally qualified to compete for a conference championship after completing its FBS transition period.
Tier 1: Chasing the CFP
A small group of teams has a realistic chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoffs because of automatic qualifiers.
Boise State and Tulane are two of the Group of Five programs. As interim coach, Spencer Danielson led Boise to a late-season run and went on to win a Mountain West title. For new Troy coach Jon Sumrall, who also gains from SMU’s move from the American to the ACC, Fritz leaves Tulane in a great position.
Arizona, on the other hand, left the Pac-12 and joined the Big 12. Tetairoa McMillan, a standout receiver, and Noah Fifita, the breakout quarterback, provide Brent Brennan with a strong platform for his Tucson debut.
Naturally, Michigan and Alabama are the two largest universities.
One of the most renowned offensive coordinators in the country is Kalen DeBoer, and Jalen Milroe was already a serious candidate for the Heisman Trophy. It is largely anticipated that Alabama will return to the CFP.
The NFL took a ton of talent away from Michigan, and the quarterback position is still unclear. However, the defense ought to be excellent, providing Sherrone Moore with a wide margin of error while the offense is being rebuilt.